Democrats rode a blue wave to victory on the back of a messaging campaign relentlessly focused on the two issues most important to voters: tackling the cost of living crisis and fighting corruption. The impact extends beyond the Beltway with a realignment in state capitals across the country.
This election cycle, SKDK helped get dozens of Democrats elected from New Hampshire to Texas, Maryland to Florida, and more. We know what they ran on, how they think, and how their constituents expect them to approach governing. Here is what we see coming down the road in Washington.
The Takeaways
Democrats succeeded because their message was clear, relatable, and easy for voters to comprehend.
Affordability was the ceiling and the floor. Not “the economy” in the abstract — specific line items. Rent, insurance premiums, groceries, gas, utilities, and child care. Voters stopped evaluating macroeconomic indicators entirely. Any message asking them to accept that conditions were improving didn’t just fail; it damaged the messenger’s credibility on everything else they had to say. The exit polls tracked this with 90% of those surveyed saying that cost of living was a major factor in their vote.
Corruption was the accelerant. Arguments about disclosure and procedure tested modestly. Arguments that named a beneficiary moved the needle. CNN’s exit polls also picked up on this, with another 90% of those surveyed saying corruption was a major factor in their vote.
Together, they became the defining narrative of the cycle. “Your costs are high because someone is getting paid” outperformed either argument alone — by the widest margins among exactly the voters who decided these races. We saw this through our research and the more than 1,000 ads we ran this cycle. A Washington Post analysis found more than $800M in ads were focused on affordability and another nearly $500M was spent on anti-corruption messaging.
That fusion is the best available predictor of what this new Congress investigates, legislates, and subpoenas.
What It Means for 2027 and the 120th Congress
A political realignment or a continuation of the last two decades?
There’s no precedent for what we’re about to see in Washington. This is a historic electoral realignment that surpassed the ‘Blue Wave’ that swept Democrats into power in 2006 and paved the way for Democratic control in 2008.
A few certainties:
- Democrats will wield their power substantively and symbolically, passing meaningful legislation that will define the party’s priorities heading into the 2028 presidential election; and
- Democrats and Republican leaders will engage in an ‘ideas’ primary as the race for the White House heats up.
…and more unknowns:
- Now that Trump is politically weakened, will Republicans begin to meaningfully distance themselves from Trump and begin to chart a new course for the Party? Or does the GOP minority walk away from bipartisan opportunities and continue to lock arms with the President?
- Will Trump further shake things up by embracing deals with Democrats to shape his legacy?
- The Democratic majorities are more ideologically diverse than at any time in recent memory. How unified will they be?
The picture will become clearer in the coming days and weeks as the parties organize themselves, Republicans pick new House leadership, and the presidential race ramps up. Here are the big issues that we’ll be watching for in a Democratic-controlled Congress:
Expected Legislative Priorities:
- Trade and Tariffs: Democrats have said they will introduce legislation in the first week of the new Congress to rescind or scale back President Trump’s executive tariffs and restore congressional authority over foreign commerce and trade policy. Canadian tariffs will be top of the list. Poll after poll showed that those tariffs, in particular, directly affected the cost of everything from groceries to lumber.
- Tax Legislation: Democrats have already expressed a desire to hold votes on legislation to undo certain provisions of the Big Beautiful Bill, including cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits.
- AI: Democrats, and many Republicans, have expressed a desire to pass regulations on the AI industry and the rapid construction of new data centers across the country.
- Iran War: Expect Democrats to force votes on Presidential war powers and weapons sales related to conflicts in the Middle East.
- Healthcare: Democratic leaders have identified restoring enhanced ACA tax credits and reversing Medicaid cuts as opening priorities, framing healthcare coverage and rising premiums as central to the broader affordability debate. Beyond those immediate goals, expect greater scrutiny of the prices, payment arrangements, and business practices that many argue are driving up healthcare costs, as Democrats work to shape a broader healthcare platform heading into 2028.
Ramped Up Oversight
Historically, during periods of divided government, Congressional oversight has dwarfed oversight conducted during unified-party control. Democratic Committee Ranking Members, who have spent the last two years in a reactive posture to their Republican counterparts, often struggling to break through, are now in a position of power to set the agenda – with real teeth and subpoena power. This means more scrutiny over regulatory agencies and the administration, but also of corporations.
Everything a Democratic lawmaker did or said in the minority now carries more weight and gets more attention. Much of this oversight will be directly tethered to issues Democrats campaigned on this year: costs and corruption.
Oversight in a Democratic Washington will be broad and fast-moving. It will take some time for Democrats to start moving complicated legislation through the committee process, which puts an even greater emphasis on oversight as an area they can act on quickly and aggressively. There will be letters, inquiries, social media posts, and hearings — which the majority can drive without so much as a vote. A chair and a staff director can generate a national news cycle on a Tuesday with a letter, a hearing, or even a press conference. This is also where progressives, moderates, and even Republicans can unite to channel their constituents’ frustration.
Depending on the issue, the days when one side of the dais defends you are over, especially when it comes to affordability and corruption.
Expected Oversight Priorities:
- Trump Administration and Agency Oversight: There will be no shortage of investigations into President Trump and his cabinet’s decision-making over the next two years. This will likely include scrutiny of the Trump family’s business interests, cryptocurrency ventures, and investments tied to defense and emerging technology. There will be oversight inquiries into the politicization of the Department of Justice, January 6-related pardons, and dealings with foreign governments. Congressional committees will also revisit decisions made by federal agencies and the work they have done (or undone) over the last two years, including attempts to close the Department of Education, the Department of Health and Human Services’ loosening of vaccination recommendations, the FCC’s attacks on certain television networks, and more. Expect scrutiny of corporate donations to Trump’s Super PAC and his future presidential library in exchange for regulatory fixes and other corporate favors.
- Tech, AI, and Crypto Companies: Tech is a clear target for Congressional oversight under Democratic control. Democrats have already pledged to scrutinize AI development, data center expansion, consumer privacy, social media’s impact on children, and competition – all of which have attracted bipartisan attention, making them particularly fertile ground for investigations and hearings. Executives of these companies should be ready to face tough questions.
- DOGE and Elon Musk: Democrats are likely to focus on Elon Musk and his companies as they look to examine the intersection of government policy, contracts, tech, and politics. Potential areas of scrutiny include Starlink’s role in Ukraine, election-related spending and coordination, and business dealings related to a potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX. There will also be a close examination of the cuts to government agencies and programs as part of the short-lived, Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
- Corporate Greed and Consumer Costs: Affordability was central to the Democratic message to win over voters, and oversight is likely to reflect that reality. Expect investigations into corporate price gouging, junk fees, and algorithmic pricing, as well as other practices that contribute to higher consumer costs.
- Corporate Consolidation: Democrats are likely to revisit the major mergers and acquisitions across a number of industries and conduct aggressive oversight of any proposed future consolidation.
- Impeachment: There will be a debate within the Democratic Party over whether to pursue an impeachment strategy, as well as who to impeach and for what. Progressive lawmakers will push for aggressive accountability efforts, so it’s fair to expect the targeting of Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth over the Iran war as well as President Trump.
- Healthcare: The oversight agenda will likely run on two tracks, examining the administration’s healthcare decisions – including coverage changes, drug pricing agreements and vaccine policies – and investigating industry practices tied to affordability and access. Hearings, document requests, and potential executive testimony could focus on insurer denials, unpaid arbitration awards, facility fees, PBM compensation, and the use of 340B savings. For healthcare companies, that creates the prospect of heightened scrutiny even when major legislation may stall.
- Epstein Abuse: Democrats will continue their investigations into the orbit of Epstein abusers in an effort to uncover the truth, bring justice to survivors, and continue to shine a light on a class of people who believe that the rules simply do not apply to them.
What to Watch For Next
- Lame Duck Session: The current Congress could attempt to clear a backlog of legislative business before the new majority takes office, or Republicans could leave key fights for Democrats to inherit in January. Government funding and year-end priorities will determine how much of the new Congress’s early agenda is set before it even starts.
- Final Wave of Republican Investigations: Republicans have launched dozens of investigations over the past two years, many targeting political opponents. Before relinquishing power, committees will rush to issue final reports, release documents, and send a flurry of criminal referrals to the Department of Justice.
- Leadership Fights and Committee Battles: The internal jockeying for leadership positions, including House Minority Leadership, and committee gavels began immediately. We are already seeing that play out in the race for Minority Leadership. These contests will determine who controls the agenda, who wields subpoena power, and which issues receive the most attention in the first months of the new Congress.
- Democrats Defining Their Targets: One of the clearest signals about the direction of the new majority will be who and what Democratic leaders choose to target first. The opening hearings, investigative letters, and public statements will provide an early roadmap for legislative and oversight priorities.